BRIEFING NOTE 43: Iran–US War

The Pause Ends, New Fronts Open, and Coalitions Take Shape

This brief is produced for analytical purposes. It does not provide price forecasts or trading recommendations.

A Rapid Refernce Brief accompanies this note. It is structured for fast consumption and decisions; operative variable and tripwire for each section

Executive Summary

US strikes on Iran resumed on July 29 after a pause of roughly four days. Iran fired five ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq al-Salti air base in Jordan on July 28, intercepted by Jordanian air defenses; the US responded with a wave of strikes on Iranian command centers, missile and drone facilities, and maritime capabilities, while US and Saudi aircraft struck Iran-backed militia sites across seven Iraqi provinces. Iran said a US strike on Qeshm Island killed three members of a family. The IRGC claimed a retaliatory strike destroyed three US F-35s at Al-Azraq, a claim CENTCOM has not confirmed, though CENTCOM acknowledged one F-35 made an emergency landing during a combat mission over Iran. More than 130 Jordanian political, legal, academic, tribal, and trade union figures signed an open letter calling for the withdrawal of foreign forces from Jordan, part of a wider pattern of Iranian appeals to host-state populations that includes a July 15 IRGC statement addressed to the Kuwaiti public.

A drone attack on two vessels at Egypt’s Damietta port on July 29 remains unclaimed; Iran and the Houthi movement have each denied responsibility. Saudi Arabia convened 43 countries in Riyadh on July 30 to establish a multinational maritime coalition for the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden; 14 signed a founding joint statement, and the United States, Oman, and the UAE are not among them.

Foreign Minister Araghchi conducted a five-day diplomatic sequence following a July 25 Ukrainian strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, pressing the EU’s Kaja Kallas and Russia’s Sergei Lavrov for a response, then warning Bulgaria and Cyprus against allowing US or UK military assets on their territory to be used against Iran.

Netanyahu met Trump at the White House on July 28; a senior Israeli official later described the meeting as covering three scenarios for Iran policy without either leader committing to one. Various outlets reported Trump erupted at his national security team over the administration’s inability to agree on the war’s core objective, an account the White House has denied.

Section Map

Section I — Jordan and Iraq: The Pause Ends

Section II — New Fronts: Egypt and the Red Sea Coalition

Section III — Iran’s Diplomatic Perimeter

Section IV — Trump and Netanyahu Meeting

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